Given IBM's second divestiture -- with more expected to follow -- HP is already the next IBM. It is the dominant vendor in the emerging media center segment, and it retains dominance in printing and imaging. HP is a strong number two to Dell in PCs and has a more comprehensive product set. With surprising strength in marketing, it is the only vendor to successfully emulate Apple's skill set and the only vendor to private-brand an Apple product. To succeed, HP must assure a high-quality experience with all of its offerings. This removes some control from product group managers, something we haven't seen in a company like HP since the Watsons left IBM. Without that, pressure to break up the company will increase, with IBM serving as the model. HP's danger is being caught in the middle; its opportunity is the chance to dominate as IBM dominated. It will all come down to teamwork.
Dell is at the opposite extreme. It operates on a simpler model that requires more partners but fewer team players, focused more on costs and less on company cohesiveness at a product level. Basically, Dell is a sales and logistics engine that operates with minimal overhead. This is the model that became the ideal in the '90s, and Gateway is now emulating it. Easier to execute but containing risks associated with technology advancement, it depends heavily on IBM and HP's inability to execute, and Microsoft and Intel adequately make up the difference. Dell's exposure is one of control: It can dominate a segment but not an industry. Should the market move to AMD and/or Linux, Dell becomes increasingly exposed, because neither of these supplies the complete core platforms that Dell requires for its model to work.
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